8 NOVEMBER 2022 | NEWS
Experts say the Conservative Party could gain seats from changes in the UK’s electoral map currently under review by the Boundary Commission for England.
Under current proposals, set to be finalised by 1 July 2023, the Tories could have won an additional five parliamentary seats in the last General Election.
If the new boundaries are introduced, 10 new constituencies could be up for grabs in the 2024 election.
The Commission reviews the UK’s electoral boundaries to ensure each constituency has between 69,724 and 77,062 people in each one.
An initial assessment of these proposals, conducted by Professors Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, suggests the Conservative Party would have won 353 of the 543 recommended seats in England if they had been in place in 2019.
Labour could have also won an additional three constituencies in London based on the new boundary proposals.
Professor Rallings and Thrasher said: “It does not look as if the new constituency map will have a substantive impact on the arithmetic of the next general election.
“The boost for the Conservatives is very small in the context of their current position in the opinion polls.
“Labour will remain very far behind, still needing a swing of [around] 12% to achieve an overall majority.”
Under the plans, Defence Secretary Ben Wallace’s constituency is set to be abolished and Home Secretary Suella Braverman’s constituency could be split in two.
Justice Secretary and Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab’s seat is also set to become marginal, meaning he is under threat of losing it at the next election.
Amid the SNP’s campaign to pressure the UK Government into holding another referendum on Scottish independence, Scotland would lose two seats in Westminster if the proposals go ahead.
A public consultation on the plans will run until 5 December.
