2 SEPTEMBER 2025 | OPINION
Yesterday, the Prime Minister announced a personnel reshuffle in Number 10. Darren Jones, previously Reeves’ deputy at the Treasury, has been appointed ‘Private Secretary to the Prime Minister’ – a ‘Minister without Portfolio’-style, delivery-focused role. Tim Allan, an old Blairite face, is the new Director of Communications (much to the chagrin of some).
The discussion has, so far, focused mostly on the short term impact this has on the Chancellor Rachael Reeves. It is no secret that she has not had an easy time. Gilt yields are at a 30 year high – higher even than during the peak of the Truss economic fiasco. Our borrowing costs are currently some of the highest in the developed world. 55% of the voting public want Reeves sacked!
The most frequent observation made about this ‘reshuffle’ is the move of the liked and competent Darren Jones over to Number 10 and away from his previous role as Chief Secretary to the Treasury. This has been mostly framed as a move to ‘freeze out’ and undermine Reeves, removing one of her key allies in her own department.
This may be true, but I think people have focused on this short-term and quite interpersonal dimension far, far too much.
We must consider the timing of this. We have had a whole summer of the Government saying very little, if anything at all. They’ve let Opposition parties dominate the airwaves, and even their response to nationwide protests about asylum seeker hotels has been incredibly muted. All they did on that front was appeal a Supreme Court injunction.
Then, on the first day back, Starmer launched a ‘government reset’ via what was intended to be a snappy video, and announced some minor bureaucratic changes which, in other circumstances, would probably have gone under the radar.
Consider that this was announced at all. Governments do not do that for no reason. The intended audience for this announcement was not just the public, but also ‘the markets’. More precisely, the various nameless city bureaucrats who make all the various decisions that ultimately dictate what our gilt yields and borrowing costs are.
Like its predecessors, this Government is beholden to powerful market forces, who currently do not have much confidence in our economy. These changes (and I have no doubt that the new Comms team will be working hard to take this further) are there to signal stability, competence, and a sense that the Government knows what it is doing. Whether or not this is true is another story.
Furthermore, making changes to the communications and delivery strategy after a summer of silence indicates that this is not a reaction to something – this is the prediction of something. In other words, Starmer and his team think the reaction to the Autumn Budget will be so overwhelmingly negative that it is now time to shore up the core team, build a better Comms strategy, and make sure Reeves is alone in the Treasury so no-one can give her a way out – other than the glass of whisky and revolver that Starmer will hand her when it all goes to pot.
Let’s face it, even if the Budget does not completely blow up in their face, it will be hard to swallow. There is very little way out of our current economic mess than spending less and taxing more – pure political poison for any government, let alone one which has had 23 different relaunches and is currently polling on about 21% of the vote.
We already saw during the Winter Fuel and Two Child Benefit cap debacles that any adjustment to welfare spending – even if that amounts to ‘let’s not spend as quickly and not quite in line with inflation’ – is completely unpalatable to Starmer’s backbenchers. This will not be a Budget of major tax cuts; realistically, it is going to be one of painful taxes on income, assets, and high earners.
The recent leaks about a tax on landlords and a higher rate of inheritance tax have not even been outright denied by the Treasury. Whatever is in that Budget, the markets will probably not be convinced.
This is exactly what I believe they are preparing for. Starmer is insulating himself from whatever the fallout is going to be, and getting ready to heap all of the blame upon his already hated Chancellor.
