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Wolves of Westminster

UK Political News and Opinion

Final election polls predict small Conservative majority

2 min read
12 December 2019 | UK NEWS

The final few election polls taken in the course of this year’s General Election campaign were published last night. They show that a small Tory majority is the most likely result of today’s vote, although their lead has narrowed in the past week and nothing can be said with certainty in this campaign.

YouGov’s polling, with data as of 10 December, yielded the following result:

Source: YouGov

This would give Boris Johnson’s party a majority of 28 seats, according to the MRP model utilised by YouGov, which was the only mass polling model to predict the result of the 2017 General Election accurately. The figure is down from 68, which had been generated when the same model was applied to polling as recently as 27 November.

Survation also published their final poll a couple of minutes before midnight last night, giving the following result:

Speaking to Wolves, the noted psephologist Lord Hayward said: “I would put Labour on below 230 seats, with 335-345 for the Conservatives and 15-20 for the Liberal Democrats.” Lord Hayward was the only individual analyst to accurately predict the result of the 2015 General Election and the 2016 EU referendum.

While it does seem likely that the Prime Minister will be returned with a majority government in the early hours of Friday morning, it should be noted that the Tory lead has more than halved between the two MRP polling periods mentioned above. It is also currently within the margin of error for a hung parliament, meaning that both main parties still have everything to play for as voters take to the ballot box today.

We at Wolves can only advise every citizen to vote with their truest conscience.

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