8 April 2022 | OPINION
Underestimating the public mood can cause politicians some grief. Jacob Rees-Mogg’s fresh Partygate comments could cause far worse than that for a struggling Conservative government.
The former Leader of the Commons and now Brexit Opportunities Minister has dismissed the Government’s Partygate scandal as “fluff” and being “fundamentally trivial”. On several (now infamous) occasions, leading Government figures were exposed attending illegal parties and social gatherings during the lockdowns forced upon the public to curb coronavirus. This includes the Prime Minister himself.
Since the calming of the storm, more important issues – both domestically and abroad – have dominated the media narrative. From the cost-of-living crisis, soaring energy bills and fuel costs to the war in Ukraine, attention has been diverted away from Partygate. As is the way with the world of politics and the media news cycle, the agenda has naturally shifted.
But this is not to say that Partygate is no longer ‘news’ – or that the public has forgiven or forgotten. It is terribly misjudged for Rees-Mogg to dismiss the scandal as simply trivial fluff, and it is incredibly mistuned to public opinion. There may be more important issues facing the British electorate today, but that is simply not the point.
The Partygate scandal may not matter to the Executive, but it matters to the electorate; it would therefore be wise for Ministers not to downplay the significance of it, even if they privately do believe it is trivial. Arguably, what has been overlooked by Rees-Mogg in making these comments is that to misjudge the public mood on Partygate is to play directly into the hands of the Opposition’s favourite attack line – that when it comes to the Conservatives, it’s “one rule for us and another for them”.
Partygate was not simply just a string of incidents of Ministers behaving badly, but it broke the trust between the Government and the electorate – it hurt voters. It left Conservative supporters feeling that they had to defend the indefensible, and for some it was the last straw following a series of other scandals and media mishaps that preceded this one.
Ahead of the May local elections, it was unwise for Rees-Mogg to address the scandal at all when considering that Partygate is opening up again as part of the media and political agenda, as last week the police began to dish out fines for Downing Street staff found to have broken the law over lockdown restrictions.
Whether, as Rees-Mogg puts it, Partygate is “fundamentally trivial” in the grand context of the international political landscape, or indeed domestically, what matters is that the public don’t see it as trivial – and that is what should matter to the Government.
Partygate has caused the greatest amount of instability in the Government since the vote of no confidence in Theresa May. Indeed, some Conservative backbenchers were even ready to declare the scandal their red line and submit a letter of no confidence in the Prime Minister. Johnson may have not had to face an internal vote on the future of his leadership, but came close to it. It could be argued that, as his seemingly endless luck would have it, the greater issues unfolding that took hold of the news cycle saved him. But, concededly, that is a rather cynical outlook however much it carries weight.
As a senior party figure, it was irresponsible for Jacob Rees-Mogg to suggest that Partygate is trivial, and therefore by indication that this is how the electorate should see it. His comments are a gross underestimation of voters’ feelings unresolved. The trouble now for the Government is that, one month away from the local elections, the issue has not been resolved and will continue to be unresolved so long as Ministers are suggesting that the scandal is fundamentally insignificant, and without an apology that is accepted by the public.
However, on the basis that the public have shown little forgiveness towards the Government over their illegal lockdown gatherings, it is unlikely that any official apology now actually would result in the electorate moving on from the scandal. If those who have been found to have broken the law by attending lockdown parties were to offer up an apology, it would be surprising to see a forgiving response from voters. Like naughty schoolboys who broke the rules, a belated apology would come across as though they were sorry being caught rather than for breaking the rules in the first place.
The simple truth is that politicians are reluctant to admit to any wrongdoing or liability for instances that cause negative press because, ultimately, they don’t want to be subject to even more criticism. Indeed, politicians’ reluctance to hold their hands up and admit fault can be attributed in some respect to the way in which the media behaves. The fixation on getting soundbites for views on social media rather than conducting rigorous journalism is one example.
Therefore, whilst it is not easy to sympathise with politicians who refuse to admit to any wrongdoing, it is certainly clear to see why they are hesitant to do so. In Jacob Rees-Mogg’s case, to offer a belated apology would likely draw in fresh criticism, which is easily avoided by making no comment at all.
They say that ‘a week is a long time in politics’, but it would be unsurprising if Partygate plays a role in the downfall of Johnson’s premiership, or indeed this Conservative Government, whether now or at any point up until the result of the next election. Through poorly executed spin and the Prime Minister’s own handling of the PR disaster, in addition to the fact that – frankly – these parties should not have been held in the first place, Partygate may well prove fatal to the prospect of another Tory Government.
Rees-Mogg’s dismissal of the matter is certainly not likely to heal the damage done to the relationship between his party and the public; the wise move would be to keep schtum on matters of lockdown parties from now on.
I agree with your view.
Well written.